The future is coming; let’s act now

by Simon Pang

Head of customer insight, Sport England

In 2021 we published our first horizon scanning project, looking at the key trends likely to shape sport and physical activity over the following decade.

At the time we were emerging from the pandemic, artificial intelligence (AI) was still a niche topic and economic uncertainty was turning from a concern into a crisis.

Fast forward to today and the world looks very different: AI isn’t just evolving, it’s everywhere; the cost-of-living impact is reshaping the way people spend on leisure and fitness; and climate change is actively changing when and where people can be active.

So three years on, we knew it was time we took another look around us.

We asked ourselves a series of key questions: what’s progressed faster than expected? What’s shifted in unexpected ways? And what do these changes mean for the future of sport and physical activity?

We worked with Trajectory, a specialist foresight agency, to revisit and refresh our original Horizon Scan, which allowed us to get a clearer picture of how the world is changing and what that could mean for our sector.

What is horizon scanning? (and why does it matter to us?)

Horizon scanning isn’t about predicting the future. No one has a crystal ball that works like that!

Instead, it’s about spotting signals of change, challenging assumptions and thinking ahead so that when shifts happen, we’re ready.

This way of working helps us ask the bigger questions, like:

what if rising living costs permanently change how people engage with sport and fitness?
what happens if extreme weather patterns disrupt traditional sports seasons?
how will AI and automation reshape the way we track, coach and even participate in physical activity?

Our aim is not to spread alarm, but to explore these issues now so we can build more resilient strategies for the future.

Most of the key trends from our original scan still hold strong, but some have evolved more than others.

The full Horizon Scan explores 16 trends under six major themes and there are two that stand out:

The cost of living is reshaping sport and leisure

In 2021, we highlighted growing income inequality as a long-term concern, but what we’re seeing now is more than a trend – it’s a lived reality.

Horizon scanning isn’t about predicting the future. No one has a crystal ball that works like that! Instead, it’s about spotting signals of change, challenging assumptions and thinking ahead so that when shifts happen, we’re ready.

Rising costs, slow wage growth and job insecurity mean people have less disposable income for things like gym memberships, fitness classes and sports participation.

Families are making tough choices about where to spend and for many, paid-for physical activity is slipping down the priority list.

At the same time, local authority budgets remain stretched, making it harder to provide affordable sport and leisure facilities.

Some communities are feeling the impact more than others, deepening inequalities in access to physical activity.

This shift means organisations may need to rethink pricing models to keep participation affordable, local authorities will have to balance economic constraints with long-term health benefits and the rise of low-cost and community-driven physical activity – like parkrun or outdoor group workouts – could accelerate.

As a result, we can see that affordability and accessibility are becoming even bigger factors in how people stay active.

Climate change is already changing the way we move

Three years ago, we identified sustainability and climate change as an important but emerging trend. Now, it’s clear: it’s not just emerging. It’s here.

Heatwaves are affecting summer participation in outdoor sports, floodings are making pitches and playing fields unusable, and government sustainability targets are reshaping sports infrastructure and travel habits.

But there’s a tension emerging: economic pressures could slow down sustainability efforts in sport and leisure because when people are struggling to make ends meet, will eco-friendly sports initiatives remain a priority, or will financial concerns push them down the agenda?

Facility managers will need to balance sustainability investments with budget realities, outdoor sports may need to adapt to new weather patterns – from changing competition calendars to investing in weather-resistant facilities – and we can see that the push for active travel, such as walking and cycling, is growing but whether it will be supported at a local level is something that remains uncertain.

Climate change isn’t a future issue – it’s a right now issue, and sport and physical activity will have to adapt.

Ok, so what’s next?

This is just a snapshot.

As we mentioned, the full Horizon Scan explores 16 key trends across six broad themes, from demographic changes to the role of digital technology in sport.

For those working in the sector, this isn’t just about awareness – it’s about action, so we encourage you to read the report and to ask yourself questions like:

what challenges or opportunities do these trends present for my organisation?
how can we ensure sport and physical activity remain inclusive, accessible and resilient in the face of change?
what can we do now to prepare for the next wave of shifts?

English music legend David Bowie once said: “Tomorrow belongs to those who can hear it coming.”

Let's listen.

Find out more