Mindshare has (on behalf of Sport England) developed an
updated model of demographically adjusted (or ‘expected’)
participation rates.
The model results enable those developing and promoting sport
locally to assess their relative levels of participation compared
with what might be expected. By doing so it provides an opportunity
to identify those areas delivering levels of participation above
what would be expected and to learn from their experience. For
those areas where participation rates are below what we might
expect it challenges them to consider how they can respond.
The work builds on previous modeling work
undertaken by the Sport Industry Research (results of the original
modelling work remain available to view in the Participation
Modelling section of the Active People
Diagnostic).
Like the previous work, results are based on a
regression model determining the main demographic factors that
influence sport participation. It takes into account a wide range
of variables outside the control of local authorities such as
income, age, profession, and family structure.
So by 'expected’ participation we mean when
taking into account or allowing for a broad range of
socio-demographic variables, what would we expect the participation
rate to be, given these demographics.
The latest model differs from the previous
work in two main respects.
First, the definition of sport participation
used is: 'National Indicator 8: The percentage of the adult (age 16
and over) population in a local area who participate in sport and
active recreation, at moderate intensity, for at least 30 minutes
on at least 12 days out of the last 4 weeks (equivalent to 30
minutes on 3 or more days a week). The previous model was based on
the KPI1 definition of participation.
Second, the updated model includes results for
Active People Survey 1 and also a combined result for Active People
Surveys 2 & 3 allowing comparison of results over time.
Model results are presented in the form of a
table. The table presents the expected sport participation rates in
local authorities compared to the actual participation rates (as
measured in the Active People Survey).
Download
expected v actual model results
A fuller explanation of the modeling
undertaken can be found in section 3 of the full
technical report.
This modeling work forms part of a wider Sport
England research project seeking to better understand local variations in sports
participation