Understanding variations in participation across local areas - statistical modelling

Accepting that the previous modelling identified the influence on sports participation of a range of demographic factors largely beyond the direct control of local authorities, identification of factors that are more amenable to public policy intervention was an emphasis of the project.

As such, the principal thrust of Mindshare’s local variations model has been to extend previous modelling work by taking into account additional quantifiable information about an individual’s surroundings, such as weather, local authority interventions, and access to facilities.

Given this aspiration, the modelling work undertaken has confirmed the importance of many of the demographic factors identified through previous work. It has also provided further insights into factors affecting sports participation (weather patterns, cultural engagement, lottery funding). However, the modelling was not able to establish some of the key relationships (proximity to facilities, local government expenditure on sport) we had sought to test.

Download a fuller summary of the findings from local variation modelling

A fuller explanation of the modelling undertaken can be found in section 4 of the Technical Report

Alongside the quantitative findings, the case studies produced through the qualitative element  of the project provide a range of interesting insights into best practice in high performing areas.