Small area estimates of participation

Analysis has been completed which models participation rates at middle layer super output area (MSOA). Active People already provides participation at a local authority level but in recognition that local authority areas are not homogenous and that there will be variation within a local authority, it was decided to model participation down to smaller areas.

The smallest geography which the Active People survey can accurately measure participation in sport and active recreation is at local authority level. Below this geography, the number of responses is too small to produce reliable figures. One solution to this is the production of “synthetic” estimates at smaller geographies. Estimates of the 3x30 participation measure* have therefore been produced for all Middle Layer Super Output Areas (MSOA).

Super Output Areas (SOA) were developed as an alternative to Wards for calculating small area statistics. Unlike Wards and other smaller geographies, all SOA represent a similar number of people allowing for comparability across smaller geographic areas. There are three levels of SOA; Lower, Middle and Upper layers. For this project, it was decided to use MSOA (Middle layer) information to produce smaller area statistics.

The 'synthetic estimates' methodology was pioneered by the ONS and the Department of Health.  It is based on the principle that measurements like quality of health, unemployment or sports participation are partially a result of other variables such as ethnicity, social grade, employment status and educational attainment. Many of these variables are available at smaller geographic areas (mainly because they come from administrative sources rather than surveys). Therefore it is possible to produce a model which uses these variables to calculate estimates of key survey indicators. This was the method used to produce the 3x30 estimates.

This information has implications for the prioritisation of resources and investment decisions throughout the Delivery System and particularly within Local Authorities and Community Sport Networks (CSN’s) and will be useful for all those working in delivering sport locally.

Outputs for this piece of work are available in map form and show small area estimates by Local Authority.

To find out more about how the maps were created, what was involved in the small area estimate modelling and to read the technical report, see the documents below.